SNP majority only way to secure second referendum – Swinney

An SNP majority at Holyrood is the only way to ensure a second independence referendum, the first minister has said.

John Swinney said securing independence would be at the heart of his party’s campaign for the 2026 election.

There are currently 60 SNP MSPs at Holyrood. A majority would require the SNP to win 65 of 129 seats in parliament.

Swinney spoke to BBC Scotland News ahead of a meeting with US President Donald Trump, during his visit to Scotland.

“We’ve got to put a priority on securing independence,” the first minister said.

“We do that by electing a majority of SNP MSPs to the Scottish Parliament and then taking forward the democratic path to independence which will secure the future of our country.”

Swinney said a second referendum would allow the SNP to make “Scotland’s energy wealth work for Scotland” and make “fair and equitable” changes to the welfare system.

He said: “It only happens if we have that referendum and we only get that referendum if a majority of SNP MSPs are elected next May.

The SNP won a majority at the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, which led the way to the 2014 independence referendum.

Swinney said a majority in 2026 would put similar pressure on the UK Government.

He added: “There’s no UK prime minister that can sit around and essentially deny the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland.”

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is also in Scotland to meet with Donald Trump.

Swinney and Starmer are both expected to attend a private dinner with the president.

Meanwhile, Ex-SNP health secretary Alex Neil has been critical of Swinney’s independence plan.

He told BBC Scotland News that the SNP was not as popular as it was in 2011 and had “lost its reputation for good government”.

He said the strategy was “more about trying to save the SNP’s bacon” than win independence.

Labour and the Conservatives were also critical of Swinney’s comments.

Scottish Labour deputy Leader Jackie Baillie said the SNP had “lost its way and ran out of ideas.

She said: “John Swinney can’t end his own obsession with division, and today has confirmed he’ll put Scots second to appease his own party.

“From the crisis in our NHS to the violence in our schools, the SNP has left every institution in Scotland weaker.”

Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton said people were “sick and tired” with Swinney’s “obsession” with breaking up the UK.

She added: ” In a bid to silence internal critics of his weak leadership, he has thrown diehard nationalists some more red meat on the one issue they all agree on, independence.”

This is quite a big moment, as John Swinney is setting a very high bar for a second referendum.

Polls suggest the SNP is currently falling short of an outright majority, with the 2026 election looming. In fact, losing seats (while remaining the largest party) looks more likely on current trends.

So why is John Swinney doing this? Well, the idea of independence is currently more popular than the SNP. So it’s logical to tie his party as closely to that cause as possible.

And he wants to dissuade pro-independence Scottish voters from looking towards other parties which back leaving the UK.

Though it’s a risky strategy. If he falls short of a majority in 2026, it looks like independence will have to take a back seat for a while.

And, regardless of result, what if the UK government just says “no”? It’s unclear where the first minister would go from there.