Net migration to push UK population to 72.5m, ONS projects

Net migration could fuel a rise in the UK population to 72.5 million by 2032, figures suggest.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has projected a population growth of 7.3% between 2022 and 2032, compared with an increase of 6.1% over the previous 10 years.

The number is almost entirely based on the net migration – the difference between those entering and leaving the country – of an estimated 4.9 million people over the 10-year period.

Downing Street said it wanted to bring down the “staggeringly high” levels of migration, but ruled out an “arbitrary” cap.

The number of births and deaths is expected to be roughly equal, while it is projected there will be an additional 1.7 million pensioners by 2032.

Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the ONS projections suggest:

• 6.79 million people will be born
• 6.81 million people will die
• 9.91 million people will immigrate long-term to the UK
• 4.98 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK

The ONS’s figures assume that, from 2028, net migration will average 340,000 extra people to the UK per year – up from previous projections of 315,000 – which is lower than current levels.

Net migration into the UK hit a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and then fell to 728,000 in the year to June 2024.

The ONS projects that it will continue to decline until 2028, but after that will remain at 340,000 per year as a long term average.

The ONS also stressed the figures were projections – not predictions or forecasts – and warned that real numbers could be higher or lower..

The Home Office said the figures were based on historic net migration numbers over a decade and that “staggeringly high” levels of migration had been seen in recent years.

It had committed to reducing those numbers “substantially”, it said, and would be setting out a “comprehensive plan” to “restore order to our broken immigration system”.

The prime minister’s official spokesman also promised a plan to reduce migration, adding that Sir Keir Starmer had previously pointed out that a “supposed cap” in place before “didn’t have any meaningful impact on reducing immigration”.

“So he doesn’t think that setting an arbitrary cap, as previous governments have done, is the best way forward in terms of significantly reducing migration.”

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the projection was “shocking and unacceptable”, and must be “stopped from materialising.”

“We need a binding legal cap on visas issued each year which is very, very substantially lower than this in order to get the numbers down and under control.”

England is expected to see the biggest population increase among the UK nations, with a projected rise of 7.8% compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland.

The natural change in population – number of births and deaths – is projected to be “around zero”.

This is because deaths are projected to rise due to a large number of people born in the post-World War Two period reaching older ages, the ONS says.

The projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, and suggest there could be fewer children due to lower fertility rates.

By the middle of 2029, the number of deaths is projected to overtake births, meaning net migration will be the only source of population growth.

This suggests that if there were no immigration nor a huge increase in babies being born, the population would be shrinking.

Economic growth would almost inevitably slow and there would be real questions about who would care for increasing numbers of elderly people.

The statistics are used in planning including fiscal projections and across public services such as education, health, and pensions.

If incorporated by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the new projections should improve “economic and fiscal outlook, and reduce borrowing by around £5 billion”, according to the Resolution Foundation.