If interest rates remain ‘higher for longer,’ the winners are those with cash accounts
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Many people, especially those with debt, will be discouraged by the recent Federal Reserve forecast of a slower pace of interest rate cuts than previously forecast.
However, others with money in high-yield cash accounts will benefit from a “higher for longer” regime, experts say.
“If you’ve got your money in the right place, 2025 is going to be a good year for savers — much like 2024 was,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.
Why higher for longer is the 2025 ‘mantra’
Returns on cash holdings are generally correlated with the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. If the Fed raises interest rates, then those for high-yield savings accounts, certificates of deposit, money market funds and other types of cash accounts generally rise, too.
The Fed increased its benchmark rate aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to rein in high inflation, ultimately bringing borrowing costs from rock-bottom rates to their highest level in more than 22 years.
It started throttling them back in September. However, Fed officials projected this month that it would cut rates just twice in 2025 instead of the four it had expected three months earlier.
“Higher for longer is the mantra headed into 2025,” McBride said. “The big change since September is explained by notable upward revisions to the Fed’s own inflation projections for 2025.”
The good and bad news for consumers
The bad news for consumers is that higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, said Marguerita Cheng, a certified financial planner and CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
“[But] higher interest rates can help individuals of all ages and stages build savings and prepare for any emergencies or opportunities that may arise — that’s the good news,” said Cheng, who is a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
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High-yield savings accounts that pay an interest rate between 4% and 5% are “still prevalent,” McBride said.
By comparison, top-yielding accounts paid about 0.5% in 2020 and 2021, he said.
The story is similar for money market funds, he explained.
Money market fund interest rates vary by fund and institution, but top-yielding funds are generally in the 4% to 5% range.
However, not all financial institutions pay these rates.
The most competitive returns for high-yield savings accounts are from online banks, not the traditional brick-and-mortar shop down the street, which might pay a 0.1% return, for example, McBride said.
Things to consider for cash
There are of course some considerations for investors to make.
People always question which is better, a high-yield savings account or a CD, Cheng said.
“It depends,” she said. “High-yield savings accounts will provide more liquidity and access, but the interest rate isn’t fixed or guaranteed. The interest rate will fluctuate, nor your principal. A CD will provide a fixed guaranteed interest rate, but you give up liquidity and access.”
Additionally, some institutions will have minimum deposit requirements to get a certain advertised yield, experts said.
Further, not all institutions offering a high-yield savings account are necessarily covered by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. protections, said McBride. Deposits up to $250,000 are automatically protected at each FDIC-insured bank in the event of a failure.
“Make sure you’re sending your money directly to a federally insured bank,” McBride said. “I’d avoid fintech middlemen that rely on third-party partnerships with banks for FDIC insurance.”
A recent bankruptcy by one fintech company, Synapse, highlights that “unappreciated risk,” McBride said. Many Synapse customers have been unable to access most or all of their savings.
