A recession is coming in the U.S., and ‘a few rate cuts’ won’t prevent it, says strategist
An Aldi supermarket in Alhambra, California, US, on Thursday, June 27, 2024.
Eric Thayer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Contrary to what many believe, investment research firm BCA Research sees that the economy is on the cusp of a recession, and the predicted upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts will not be sufficient to steer markets out of it.
“Every single one of us now believes there’s a recession, and that’s exactly the opposite of what the market believes,” Garry Evans, BCA Research’s chief strategist of global asset allocation told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the “deteriorating” U.S. labor market. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate inched to 4.3% in July to its highest since October 2021, and a gauge for U.S. manufacturing activity fell to an eight-month low in the same month.
“There’s things that are breaking down quite rapidly now,” said the strategist.
The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
But according to Evans, that will not move the needle much on his projections.
“A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy,” he said.
“The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%. It’s currently at 5.3%. That will not happen unless there is a recession,” he added.
A recession typically occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real GDP.
Traders are also keeping their eye on the annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole this week, which could offer greater clarity on the interest rate outlook, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak at the gathering on Friday.
The U.S. economy has remained robust even amid ongoing inflation and elevated interest rates.
In the last century, there have been more than a dozen recessions, some lasting as long as a year and a half.
Although the U.S. isn’t officially in a recession, a survey conducted by Affirm reveals that about 3 out of 5 Americans think it is.
